Despite the apparent economic momentum experienced by Cuba in 2015 and 2016 – right after agreements were signed by presidents Barack Obama and Raul Castro in December 2014 – the country, hindered by its internal economic structure, was already well on its way to another economic crisis.

The ephemeral reset of relations between Cuba and the United States provided a breath of fresh air and renewal which quickly dissipated with Donald Trumps’ arrival in the White House.

The Trump administration has been one of the most aggressive toward the Cuban government. However, Trump’s policy made the real state of the Cuban economy more apparent: its weakness and reliance on the external sector, especially political, for its subsistence and development. The agenda also highlighted the imperative/imminent need for a radical change of the Cuban socio-economic model, which the island’s government is planning.

In terms of internal policy, a legal framework should be created once and for all for private small and medium-size enterprises, enabling them to, among other things, import and export directly (without having to transit through a government company). The role they would play in the transition from a highly centralised model to a model which would focus on giving the market a more important role to play is significant in the sense that the announced devaluation of the national currency could potentially seriously impact the profitability of many public enterprises.